Sunday, November 9, 2008

What may work and what has not been done yet.

A lot of importance is being paid to Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets. This seems misplaced as I will argue below.
Most emerging markets have seen destruction of export demand to a great extent. Their stock markets have sympathetically self-destructed aping the stock markets of G7 economies. Their currencies have weakened to account for the likely pressure on the balance of payments.
The monetary steps that has been unleashed addressed the demand for dollars from stock market investors who were withdrawing investments from the emerging markets. The policies provided liquidity that was sucked out as the economy produced goods but those goods were not purchased due to demand destruction. The intention was to provide liquidity to push the wheels and gears of production.
But, in the face of demand destruction, how does monetary expansion help? Yes, in the first stage it is necessary to smoothen the market action and help production to continue. But, where is the fiscal stimulus to boost demand?One can only hope that the Governments have been busy preparing for the second step silently and hopefully they will announce the steps. We need effective steps. In India, unfortunately, we have no sign of such steps.
Until these steps are announced, I am not certain that we will see a major recovery in the stock markets. For the long term, I would recommend taking exposures on stocks with good OPM, high Dividend yield (compared to historical trend of the stock or industry), low price to book value and low PEs. Of course, selecting the correct industry is a problem. The negative list would include Auto, Auto Ancilliaries, Cement, Metals, Real Estate, Media, Shipping etc. I dont have a yes list but I would use the above rules to pick my stocks in various sectors.
It is still a risky game - we dont know how many more skeletons are waiting to come out and we dont know whether the recession will last one or two years. It seems policy makers are talking about a recession that is 2 years long. Buyers beware!. Dont expect major returns and keep a large stop. Happy hunting!

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