Monday, November 3, 2008

A good week! - The tough week approaches

Global markets recovered about 12% last week. The recovery was well expected as Indices were at multi-year lows and a bear-market rally was unavoidable.
The chances of the rally fizzling out are bright this week. I base this on the following - No major CB or Government action was reported in the Western world during the last week that could have helped to push indices up further. The US became enmeshed in the final run-up to Presidential elections, the ECB more or less threw in the towel formally (a series of rate cuts are now well-priced in), the UK is preparing to welcome the recession. However, there hasb been action in the East - China and India along with other Asian countries delivered more liquity to markets as their governments fretted about impact on growth due to the disappearence of the Western Export markets. The mother of all has been ofcourse,the cut in rates in Japan - it dropped its rate almost by half!. The Japanese are going back to their favourite item on the menu - pushing the string, nevermind that it has not helped them in the past in delivering results.
As many commentators have begun to point out, the growth engines that are still spluttering are in Asia and the burden of saving the western world is now on the Asian Central Banks and Governments. While the glee of Asian commentators is hardly masked, it appears that Asia also believes its moment has now come. But is it possible that they are mistaken in their self-belief?. Have they forgotten that their recent riches have been rub-offs (ok, they may have been well deserved), from the growth juggernaut of the Western world (it is now very easy to divide the world into East and West - Japan has stopped contributing meaningfully, to the world GDP for so many years).
Since Asian economies have become more export oriented of late, how is it possible that they could not be impacted by the disappearance of those markets? Is it possible that they continue to chug along regardless of the trouble that the locomotive is facing? Their strong currency reserves position, their healthy fiscal position and their GDP have already weakened. In such a situation is it the right thing to fritter away these strengths or is it the time to conserve these?
The damage seems strong enough to impact these economies for some years. Have markets had a chance to analyse the impact of the measurs on their ecnomies? have markets estimated when the recession in the West would end and help the Asian economies to reestablish themselves?Should caution be ignored?In the steps that Asia is taking, do we see the formation of a local bubble driven by political expediency?
Markets are likely to have a relook at the above. I expect equity markets to remain lacklustre - in any case, volumes last week have been insufficient to pronounce an end to the recent crash of stockmarkets. Weak stocks must be offloaded in this phase.

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