Sunday, November 16, 2008

Recession is on (officially!)

So it is official. Atleast 4 of the major Economies are in recession - US, UK, Eurozone, Japan. Very soon, more will join this group. The urgency shown by the Governments and by Central Banks has shown little positive results so far.
I think the speed of this Tsunami has possibly left little time for Governments to think through. Eventhough rumbles in the nature of Bear Sterns and others hit the world before September, it seems that the post September 15 events (just about 2 months) were the watershed events-the letting go of Lehman must be rankling the Fed so badly. Until October the Fed has been grappling with the fallout of the Tsunami and as the US went through an election, it has been surprisingly inert, I mean on the fiscal side. Otherwise, what explains inaction on the Auto sector; the large employment is attraction enough for a politician to act.
The US also seems to have tied itself up with TARP. The freeing up of the Credit markets in itself can only push money market rates down across. Since markets expect the Fed to reach its zero rate (0.25%) what next? In the face of the phenomenal risk aversion and as more economies tumble down and demand is destroyed, why are Governments not taking fiscal steps?
The problem is that though the problem has built up over some years and has been assuming a shape and size in the last 15 months, the full force on the economy has been felt in the last few months. The size and the regularity of the problems have surprised Governments. Central Banks, with their clear heads (and objectives of growth, inflation, employment) have moved first, obviously with helpful prodding from Governments. But, what seems to be scarce is governmental action.
It would seem that Governments are so poorly prepared to deal with something like this, individually or collectively. But, if we were to step back and have a relook it is clear that every solution is itself quite complex. Since demand is yet to be fully destroyed, and employment has not really plummeted very severely, when recession is still at the shores of advanced nations, there has been such limited steps from developing nations. The developed nations themselves are unable to break free of their capitalism - they think the steps from Central Banks are adequate. The problem is of course, deeper. Developed countries have lived off the demand from developing countries. Since the latter are beginning to suffer GDP falls, developed nations will quickly discover that pushing the string will lead to nowhere. Until markets stay in a panic mode, funds flow into developing nations will suffer and consequently the vicious circle continues. It is my guess that the way out is going to take a few quarters.
Meanwhile, if you were to analyse the above, the following ideas must appeal -
a) the dollar is possibly close to a reversal
b) emerging market currencies would have to strengthen
c) export growth from emerging economies will have to suffer
d) fiscal health of all nations will worsen; but, as it happens usually, I suspect the developing economies will have to pay more for this
e) steeper yield curves will win respect

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