Sunday, December 7, 2008

Strategies for current times

I find that more and more people are puzzled by the Dollar's strength amid the recent global volatility.
I am one of them - the sub-prime crisis originated in the US, the twin deficits are largest in the US, its unemployment is almost 7 pct, its banks are on oxygen supply, its manufacturing and GDP is in shambles. And, the median expectations suggest a depression lasting the full of 2009.
On the other hand, the Eurozone has smaller deficits though it is facing a similar problem on GDP and unemployment. Many OECD countries are passing through a bad phase.
Yet, the dollar has continued to strengthen relentlessly. Recently, though it seems to be forming a top. I would suggest that the dollar's strength is creating for the US economy. When and how would the dollar weaken? We have reached the possible end of monetary policy ammunition of the US - on Dec 16, the Fed could cut rates by upto 75 bp as per median expectations. Liquidity has been flooded into the markets. On the other hand the new evidence from data suggests that the recession is going to be longer and a return to normal conditions before growth has a chance will have to wait till the end of 2009.
Thus, some of the above could impact the dollar negatively - low bond yields may dampen dollar investment flows, Countries with excess current account surpluses are not opening up their borders to imports which could hit the US more than others, the Treasury bonds may turn unattractive due to their low yields and low real yields, a big rise in deficit could bring about a selloff in bonds due to inflationary expectations.
Companies that have non-dollar exposures may look at hedging these.

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